What won't Change

Change is the only constant in life, but the sheer pace and scale of it over the past six months has been remarkable. Technology is advancing at a generational clip, geopolitical conflicts flare daily, and domestic tax policy has shifted meaningfully in the past eight weeks alone.

Sitting in this volatility, markets and commentators cling to narratives. It's very hard to look 10 years out and invest with clarity.

But we've found it more helpful to invert that problem.

"I frequently get the question: 'What's going to change in the next 10 years?' And that is a very interesting question; it's a very common one. I almost never get the question: 'What's not going to change in the next 10 years?' And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two - because you can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time."

Jeff Bezos, 2012

Bezos used Amazon's e-commerce business as the perfect example of this philosophy. He pointed out that in 10 years, customers are never going to say:

• "Jeff, I love Amazon, I just wish the prices were a little higher."

• "I love Amazon, I just wish you'd deliver a little more slowly."

Well, it's been 14 years since that interview, and I dare say that low prices and fast delivery are certainly not obsolete yet.

Turning to our Bluechips portfolio, we've made two new additions that we think share similar durability and permanence. As we look 10 years out, we can confidently plant our flag in the ground and say that their cornered assets will still have value and earnings power - no matter how AI evolves.

Vinci SA

A French contracting and concessions operator with origins dating back over 125 years and scale that is unmatched. It has a simple model:

Contracting (Vinci Construction & Energies) - lower-margin, cyclical, but capital-light work. Everything from recurring energy and electrical maintenance contracts to large civil engineering and building projects. This is where the revenues and cash flows come from, and the know-how and track record is an important pillar of value.

Concessions (Vinci Autoroutes and Airports) - the reinvestment destination. Long-duration, quasi-monopolistic, inflation-linked assets that Vinci finances, builds, maintains and operates over multi-decade contracts in exchange for user-fee revenue, often under regulated frameworks. 70 airports across 14 countries. 4,443 km of French toll roads. 3,700 km of highways, bridges and tunnels across Brazil and the US.

I don't think I'll win any awards for boldness in claiming that in 2036, people will still be flying in and out of Lisbon, or that the high-voltage lines across Germany will need reinforcing and maintaining. These are things that won't change.

Robertet SA

Another French company with more than a century of history behind it. Robertet is a 175-year-old, family-controlled natural ingredients house.

They source and transform over 1,600 natural raw materials from 60 countries into the fragrances, flavours and active ingredients that define everyday products - the smell of your fabric softener, the taste of your toothpaste, the scent of a favourite perfume. It sells critical, low-ticket inputs that are a tiny part of the customer's cost but central to the final product.

The depth of its sourcing is the competitive advantage. Control of flagship supply chains - New Caledonian sandalwood, Moroccan rose, Tunisian orange blossom, tonka beans - gives preferential, traceable, often exclusive access that rivals cannot replicate. These relationships take decades to build and are not for sale.

I'm confident that Chanel No. 5, which launched in 1925, will still be sold in 2036. I'm also confident that Chanel won't want to mess with the formula and ingredients, of which Robertet supplies.

It's tempting to fixate on the new — hypothesising what the latest AI product launch means for an industry, when SpaceX will be taking us to Mars, what 100 ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz means for oil prices tomorrow.

But the market is forgetting about the things that won't change - especially over time horizons longer than three years.